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Immigration Column
Changes in Canada's Permanent Resident Admission Targets: Background and Significance
▶ The Canadian government announced a 20% reduction in annual permanent resident quotas starting in 2025.
▶ Post-pandemic economic changes have led to a readjustment of immigration policies.
▶ Tightening of temporary visa regulations may significantly impact permanent residency programs.
▶ While permanent resident quotas decrease, the proportion of economic immigrants is increasing.
▶ Future immigration policies are expected to become more complex, requiring careful consideration from applicants.
On October 24th, the Canadian government announced that it would reduce the annual permanent resident quotas by approximately 20% over the next three years starting from 2025. This announcement has led many to worry about a bleak outlook for immigration to Canada. Today, we will explore the background and implications of this announcement.
During the pandemic, the Canadian government pursued policies aimed at economic recovery through population influx. With decreased entries and labor shortages, efforts were made to attract foreign workers and new immigrants by continuously easing regulations. The announcement to welcome 500,000 immigrants annually by 2025 was 1.5 times the previous ambitious plan to accept 1 million over three years.
Post-pandemic, from the latter half of 2023, Canada's economic situation changed rapidly. As people who had delayed their plans due to travel restrictions flooded in, issues like infrastructure shortages, rising housing prices, inflation, and increasing unemployment led to a drop in support for the Liberal government. Consequently, immigration policies had to be readjusted. The initiation of stricter regulations on temporary visas can be understood in this context. Such large-scale influx inevitably led to social problems, making it unavoidable to adjust permanent resident quotas.
From 2024, regulations on student visas, work permits, and LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment) have been tightened. Unlike permanent resident quotas, temporary visas did not have fixed annual quotas. The number of student visa holders surged from around 250,000 in 2020 to 680,000 in 2023. Similarly, individuals who obtained work permits through the IMP (International Mobility Program) and TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker Program) increased from 320,000 in 2020 to 940,000 in 2023. While permanent resident applications are processed systematically, the number of temporary visas was not managed with specific annual quotas. Moreover, LMIA assessments, which are employer evaluations for hiring foreign workers, depended on Canada's labor market conditions, unemployment rates, and subjective judgments of officers. During the pandemic, labor shortages due to decreased entries led to unprecedented relaxation of LMIA assessments. Even procedures verifying the employer's business status were omitted, resulting in a record number of LMIAs issued. It is reasonable to revert these temporary measures implemented to overcome pandemic conditions.
However, the comprehensive regulations on low-wage LMIAs announced on September 26 seem excessively stringent. Initially, the Canadian government aimed to reduce temporary visa holders to about 5% of the total population, but policy changes suggest a much larger reduction is possible. With a decrease in temporary visas, questions arise about how permanent resident numbers will be maintained. Most permanent residency programs require work experience in Canada, so a reduction in temporary visas can significantly affect these programs.
The already announced quota of 500,000 permanent residents seemed ambitious even without considering temporary visa regulations. Although the new quota reduces the previous target by about 20%, it is still higher than the pre-COVID-19 level of 350,000 and not lower compared to the numbers in the past decade.
Many claim that the door to permanent residency is closing, but even with a 20% reduction, Canada is still accepting a record number of permanent residents annually. While the policy intended to encourage permanent residents instead of temporary visa holders, excessively restricting temporary visas makes it challenging to attract permanent residents. Recent actions by the Canadian government differ somewhat from the immigration policy directions Canada has shown so far and seem to be causing confusion. Further adjustments are likely inevitable soon.
According to the Immigration Levels Plan announced on October 24, the government has adjusted its permanent resident admission targets for the next three years as follows:
| Year | Total New Permanent Resident Quota | Economic Immigration Quota |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 395,000 (367,000 - 436,000) | 232,150 (215,000 - 256,000) |
| 2026 | 380,000 (352,000 - 416,000) | 229,750 (214,000 - 249,000) |
| 2027 | 365,000 (338,000 - 401,000) | 225,350 (207,000 - 246,000) |
While the government is reducing overall immigration, the proportion allocated to economic immigration is increasing. The 2025 economic immigration target decreased by only about 22% from 301,250 to 232,150. Over 40% of economic immigrants are expected to be temporary residents already in Canada. However, the provincial nominee program is set to decrease by 54%, which may be disadvantageous for Koreans applying mainly through this program. It will be important to closely monitor each province's annual quotas.
Additionally, the temporary resident targets from 2025 to 2027 are set as follows:
| Year | Annual Expected Quota for Temporary Residents |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 673,650 (604,900 - 742,400) |
| 2026 | 516,600 (435,250 - 597,950) |
| 2027 | 543,600 (472,900 - 614,250) |
It is clear that the Canadian government will continue to prefer talents already adapted to Canada through temporary visas and will prioritize them for permanent residency. It is expected that there will be adjustments in temporary visa regulations proportionate to the number of permanent residents. In the current complex situation, Canada's immigration policies are more intricate than ever, requiring hopeful immigrants to approach with greater caution.
The Canadian government's annual quota announcements include targets for the next year and the following two years. While the next year's target is generally fixed, the targets for the second and third years are provisional and subject to change. Despite the reduction in permanent resident targets for 2025-2027, the 2025 target remains higher than Canada's pre-pandemic goals.
Typically, such announcements are made by the Minister of Immigration, but this time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took the lead. Trudeau stated that these changes are politically motivated, saying, "We are focused on winning the next election." He emphasized the importance of immigration to Canada, stating, "We have made our economy the envy of the world." While it's true that Canada's immigration policies and laws are heavily influenced by its economy and politics, this move seems to accentuate that trend. Few countries have been spared economic difficulties and turmoil due to the pandemic. In an economy like Canada's, which relies heavily on immigration, these changes are felt even more acutely.
