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Immigration Column
Changes in Canada's Immigration Policies Due to Political Shifts
On January 6, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation from both the Liberal Party leadership and the position of Prime Minister. Recent years have seen the world experience unpredictable political shifts. Events such as the impeachment of South Korea's president and the election of Donald Trump with his controversial statements have greatly impacted global politics and economics. Canadian politics is no exception to these global changes, and Trudeau's resignation is expected to significantly affect Canada's immigration policies. With the Conservative Party's likelihood of taking power rising, the immigration process is expected to become stricter. This column delves deeply into the direction of Canada's immigration policies amidst these changes.
Canada, the second-largest country in the world by territory, has actively utilized immigration policies to offset low birth rates and population density. In 1967, Canada introduced the world's first immigration point system, establishing itself as a multicultural nation attracting skilled talent regardless of race or nationality. Since then, Canada has steadily increased annual immigration numbers through Express Entry and Provincial Nominee Programs. In the 2000s, annual immigration stood at about 250,000, which expanded to approximately 500,000 by 2024.
However, the Canadian government has recently introduced a new direction to address issues stemming from a rapid increase in immigration. Policies such as freezing immigration quotas until 2026 and limiting temporary resident and international student visa issuances were announced to alleviate housing shortages and social burdens.
Several critical reasons underline Canada's intent to reduce immigration. First, a rapid increase in immigrants has exacerbated housing shortages. Over the past five years, the average housing prices in Canada's major cities have risen by 25%, with Vancouver and Toronto reaching averages of over $1.2 million and $1 million, respectively. These housing costs have also placed additional pressure on Canada's social welfare and healthcare systems.
Furthermore, economic concerns such as rising unemployment are another reason driving changes in immigration policies. A 2023 survey revealed that 61% of respondents believed immigration numbers should be reduced, with many highlighting the negative impacts of increased immigration. These issues are particularly severe in major cities and have drawn criticism that the Liberal government's aggressive immigration expansion policies were excessive.
Trudeau's resignation signals significant changes in Canada's political landscape. With the Liberal Party's approval ratings declining, the Conservative Party's chances of taking power appear very high. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized Trudeau's immigration policies as "out of control" and has pledged to tighten refugee screening and strengthen border security. Predicted changes under a Conservative government include:
Aims to eliminate fraudulent applications and simplify the screening process.
Visa issuance requirements are likely to be tightened, and quotas adjusted.
Focus on high-demand fields like healthcare, encouraging talent recruitment in these areas.
Expansion of immigration policies targeting low-density regions is also possible.
The Conservative Party is expected to emphasize stricter refugee and immigration screening while focusing on border security. However, policies based on economic needs are likely to continue, maintaining a preference for highly skilled workers in sectors such as IT and healthcare.
Donald Trump's potential reelection could lead to significant changes in U.S. economics and policies, impacting Canada's economy and immigration policies. Trump is expected to revive "America First" policies and reignite trade wars, potentially harming Canada's major export industries, including lumber, steel, and automotive sectors. Additionally, Trump's focus on energy independence could reduce Canadian oil and gas imports, negatively affecting Canada's economy.
Moreover, stricter U.S. immigration policies could increase the number of immigrants seeking entry into Canada. Restrictions on refugee acceptance in the U.S. could lead to a rise in refugee influx through the U.S.-Canada border, increasing the burden on Canada's refugee system. Meanwhile, talented individuals losing opportunities in the U.S. might consider Canada as an alternative.
Although a Conservative government is anticipated to implement stricter immigration policies, it may also refine the Liberal government's indiscriminate policies into more rational and precise measures. While immigration quotas might decrease and screening become stricter, Canada’s economic reliance on immigration suggests opportunities may remain for visa-exempt countries like South Korea. Programs such as IEC, LMIA-exempt pathways, and CK-FTA could offer strategic advantages, ensuring Canada's immigration door remains open for those who prepare effectively.
